A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Age from the Auricular Surface of the Ilium in Modern American Skeletal Samples

Age estimation from human skeletal remains is a critical component of the biological profile for unidentified decedents. Using Bayesian approach, we examine two popular methods (Lovejoy–LJ, and Buckberry zand Chamberlain–BC) estimating age auricular surface ilium. Ages transition are generated modern Portuguese sample (n = 466) coupled with an informative prior historic Spitalfields, London 179) to estimate in Americans Bass Donated collection 639). The was challenging statistically model, potentially due higher morbidity mortality characteristics central southern United States. highest posterior density ranges provide realized accuracy between 84–89% males 85–91% females using LJ method, 79–82% 65–71% BC method. Both worked well older individuals. Cumulative binomials showed that both significantly underperformed; however, results were better which also lower bias. Reference tables aging American samples provided, data meet Daubert guidelines, i.e., legal criteria acceptable scientific evidence court law